The Real Reason No One Can Buy A Rolex or Patek Right Now – A Breakdown of the Shortage 2021



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In this video, I’ll take a detailed look at how supply issues from major brands are impacting the watch industry. As you can probably guess, we’ll talk about three brands in particular: Rolex, Patek Philippe, and Audemars Piguet. If you like this kind of educational content, be sure to comment your ideas for future educational videos down below in the comments.

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0:00 – Setting the Stage
5:31 – The Power of Autonomy
8:04 – The Growing Snowball
11:58 – A Double-Edged Sword
15:25 – Where From Here?

33 comments

  1. Hi Everyone, I hope you enjoy this video. Since shooting this, there have been some updates with the story with Rolex finally making a public statement. I wanted to be as thorough as possible with this video as there is a lot involved in this equation. Thanks for watching and leave a comment with your thoughts regarding the subject.

  2. 14:05 Curious why can't ADs sell their watches above sticker like car dealers are doing nowadays for a lot of their cars (or before for special cars). see new 911 gt3s with 50-100k dealer premiums.

  3. Look at the car market, in 2019 there were 200 million cars on the road, new and used cars available, the average 5 year old used car price was say $10,000, in 2022 there are still 200 million cars on the road as well as used cars available on lots but due to the 'so called' chip shortage, the average new car price now has a premium added to it and used car values have doubled. Yet there are still those 200 million cars on the road. Most cars have historically been over produced, they aren't one of a kind, so the supply is there, but yet they managed to raise prices and customers are paying the premium. I think it's all due to a few factors. The average 401K since 2016 has doubled practically. If the stock market devalues due to interest rate increases, you will see prices all over come down. Same with real estate, people have more equity to buy other goods, cars and luxury items, if interest rates raise and real estate values come down, there will be less equity, people will be paying off the equity loans, there will be less liquidity in the market. Looks like a crash is eminent, but when? The other factor are the morons in DC who are in charge, massive debt and dependence on foreign oil, a dangerous open border carrying in drugs, illegals and prostitution and no accounting for the Chinese made virus. Rumors of war with Russia and depending on Asia in producing goods that should have been produced back home by now. Are we walking across a lake at 37 degrees and taking a chance that it will carry us across?

  4. After owning GMT Master for almost 10 years I have decided to get for my 60th birthday a new Submariner (Hulk), I have been told the waiting list is 5 years.. Two weeks later I came across AD about high-end clones. I thought to give it a try. Guess what? I compared the quality, steel, finish etc to my original GMT, I even opened the back case to check the movement which is identical to Rolex. There is zero chance it can't be spotted as a fake. The build quality and finish put a lot of legitimate Swiss brands to shame.

  5. Let there be light, and suddenly there was light. Wow, Teddy! I think of myself as intelligent and perspicacious but your expose has provided the clarity I was so lacking! Stunning video!

  6. Absolutely superb, enjoyed your thoughts immensely, I agree and see the likes of Rolex of going further in-house and taking away the AD network completely especially in the UK, W Europe, China, just as the like of Tesla and other car manufacturers. They need to keep the mechanical watch as relevant, they managed it with the Quartz crisis can they do this again with the phone/smart watch era…….ultimately I agree they AP Patek etc have their eyes on the future and not the latest share report; so maybe they only have to engender relevance and demand once every generation?

  7. great video… however in miami the design district rolex store has two watch makers and three sales people… they are showing "display only" watches.. all are 36mm watches and nothing of high value. it is a matter of time before they as a company figure it out that sustaining a brick and mortar store front cant sustain business or employees… intern they will add to the unemployment issues… the rolex store in panama city panama just closed and let go the staff…

  8. i think there would come a time that prestige won't be enough to carry your brand for the long run, the younger generation have more of a tech fetish.. reminds me of other markets that milked on prestige and workmanship alone

  9. "It would cost a fortune for Rolex to scale up production to meet demand." NO! They just need to make more of the in-demand models and fewer of the ones no one wants. Why don't they reallocate production capacity to in-demand models? Because they LIKE the hype. You're being played. Don't fall for the baloney. Take your business elsewhere.

  10. This is a good video , but it misses one important point, and that is income. All of us with a smartphone know a watch is not necessary except for the prestige one brings unless it has a special purpose like a Divers Watch, Hikers Watch, Climbers Watch, Sportsmen's watch. If a watch was a necessity, a twenty dollar quartz watch would do just fine, one with multiple functions – date, day, time zones, DST, lighted dial, stop watch, splits, and whatever else the maker can fit into that single case, maybe even a decent leather band or better packaging.

    The income level for watches goes like this, IMHO: <$20, <$50, <$100, <$200, <$500, <$1,000, <$2,000, <$3,000, <$5,000, and <$10,000 USD. Once the price goes above the $1,000 – $10,000 USD level the watch is no longer a watch – it is jewelry, it becomes Bling, or something to be worn on special occasions only, and not worn daily. At those astronomical prices well above $125,000 the jewelry owner has to protect his investment somehow, either by hiring security, or leaving the Bling goods in a secured area.

    Despite Rolex et al 100-year look into the future they do not see the more egalitarian watches taking over their market share, and they are wrong to ignore that. People can get just as much saatisfaction from wearing an <$100 cool aatch as from a much more expensive model, and not worry about if it gets lost or stooen.As the years pass, the luxury watches will continue to give good service and first rate watches will be handed down to the next generation. As that happens, demand must decrease, and the bubble of dealers supporting the highest segment will come to a crashing halt. The watch buyer will no longer be interested in such a portable statement of High Dollar Bling, something so easily stolen in a heartbeat, never to be found again. He or she will look to buy income-producing assets instead, because wearing your wealth on your sleeve just does not make sense.

  11. The real reason why you can’t buy these watches is because you don’t have enough money. If Jeff Bezos wanted these watches, he can have it on his desk within a week. A billionaire once said “money can’t buy happiness is because you don’t have enough”.

  12. Great video, thank you! By the way I really think that our glorious three brands must have a kind of informal connection with the grey market, flippers and similar. No problem about the relatively small amount of pieces or their prices, but it's totally unbelievable that today you can't even buy an entry level Rolex from a regular AD, while you can find hundreds of them on-line at double their retail price waiting for a potential crazy buyer. At the end of the day the responsibility of all this paradox falls on the brand!!!

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